Analysts from the Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs have downgraded their
prediction for US and European stocks for the next three months. They
expect a reversal of investor positioning and say further growth
requires a better economic environment.
Goldman expects the S&P 500 and the STOXX Europe 600 to contract about 10 percent over the period.
"Given
equities remain expensive and earnings growth is poor, in our view
equities are now just at the upper end of their 'fat and flat' range," said the analysts.
The
downgrade follows a recent rally in risk assets, driven by both light
positioning into the Brexit vote and a search for yield, according to
the bank.
“Our risk appetite indicator is near neutral levels
and its positive momentum has faded, suggesting positioning will give
less support and we will need better macro fundamentals or stimulus to
keep the risk rally going. But market expectations are already dovish,
and growth pick-up should take time,” they added.
Goldman
Sachs is downgrading stocks to 'underweight' for the next three months,
but keeping a 'neutral' position in the next year, staying 'overweight'
in cash.
On Friday, the S&P 500 touched an all-time high of
2,177.09. This happens at a time, when the US economy grew 1.2 percent
in the first half of the year, well below the predicted 2.5-2.6 percent
growth.
According to Jeffrey Gundlach, the CEO of DoubleLine Capital, this means the market has become overly complacent.
“The
artist Christopher Wool has a word painting, 'Sell the house, sell the
car, sell the kids.' That's exactly how I feel sell everything. Nothing
here looks good. The stock markets should be down massively but
investors seem to have been hypnotized that nothing can go wrong,” Gundlach told CNBC
on Friday. His DoubleLine Capital is keeping money in gold and gold
miner assets, the traditional safe haven for investors.
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